23 August 2012
Europe must develop Security Theory
By: Karsten Riise
Proof of decline in US power.
Consequences to be taken.
Experts confirm USA’s decline
The world’s most influential security experts confirm a large decline in USAs power:
Zbigniew Brzezinski, former US national security advisor (Strategic Vision, 2012) wrote a full
book to ‘revitalize’ USA and feels need to give USA a new vision at a time, where USA (if revitalized) can in best case hope to act in a limited role as an ‘enabler’ of Europe and ‘balancer’ of Asia – not alone, but in dependent cooperation with others. Brzezinski admits, that USA has lost vitality. Today, Brzezinski has given up his talk from 1997 of ‘US preeminence’ and ‘USAs unchallenged hegemony in the world’ (The Grand Chessboard, 1997). Brzezinski now even wants an alliance with Russia.
Barack Obama, US president in his Australian Parliament speech (17 Nov. 2011, far away from
European partners!) recognized that USA no longer has the force to be present everywhere. USA
wants to reduce its force-strength in Europe in order to step-up a provocative military encirclement
of China. To leave Europe and provoke China, that is what USA means, with Brzezinski words about
‘enable’ Europe and ‘balance’ Asia. Foreign Policy, authoritative magazine (The Debate on Decline, July/August, 2012). The fact that Foreign Policy magazine feels that it needs to take up a discussion about US decline is in itself a proof of US decline.
Henry Kissinger, former US secretary of state (On China, 2011, Wall Street Journal interview, 21 May, 2011) – says that USA cannot ‘contain’ China. Instead, USA must cooperate with China, and be diplomatic about ‘human rights’. USA should even cooperate with China to give over Taiwan to China. Kissinger points out, that China’s take-over as the world’s biggest lender is a turning-point in global power (CS Monitor, 28 June, 2011) Obviously, if USA had retained its old dominance, USA would never have had to be so flexible, as Kissinger suggests. Kenneth Waltz, one of world’s most prominent scholars (in Foreign Policy, July/Aug.2012) points out, that USA has no better option than to let Iran get the nuclear Bomb. The USA (in spite of the world’s biggest air-force, navy and special-forces) cannot stop Iran in a secure way. Haaretz, leading Israeli newspaper (Ignoring the Tsunami, Haaretz, 24 June 2010) already two years ago analyzed consequences of USAs decline in power.
Thomas P.M. Barnett, influential Pentagon-analyst (The World After Bush, 2011) wants (like Brzezinsky) to give at last call to revitalize USA from its decline. Thomas P.M. Barnett points out that USA is not strong enough to provoke Russia (missile-shield) and China (encirclement), drive a conflict with Iran, and at the same time still continue its global ‘war on terror’. Thomas P.M. Barnett even advices that USA should make a list of all the times USA violated the interests of other great powers (China, Russia) and make good for them! USA is a deal-breaker (Anti-Missile Treaty) where USA should long ago instead have been a deal-maker with China, Russia and the Rest-Of-World. STRATFOR, prime geostrategic analyst firm (2011) notes, that Pakistan no longer respects the power of USA.
STRATFOR long ago realized that USA needs to stop its confrontation and cooperate with Iran. A
great number of US books count the unsustainable costs for USA of its aggressive military activity, with titles like ‘Sands of Empire’ and ‘Sorrows of Empire’ and ‘The Empire Project’. The decline of USAs power, US wars as a symbolic theatre, and the creation of a multi-polar world were analyzed early by Emmanuel Todd, a French scholar (After the Empire, 2001).
Hard evidence of USA’s decline
If you think you know better than the experts above, judge the facts yourself:
Turkey in 2003 denied US access to attack Saddam Hussein from Turkish territory. This clearly
surprised USA, which already had troops on way to transit Turkey, and it forced USA to a humiliating detour of those troops. In 2010, Turkey sent its humanitarian flotilla to Gaza - another public humiliation of USA and its pro-Israel policies. Also in 2010, Turkey and Brazil (Brazil no longer obeying USAs hegemony in South America) made a separate nuclear agreement with Iran on
Uranium-fuel processing against USAs wishes.
This time, USA was humiliated for its dishonesty about making a peaceful Uranium-arrangement with Iran. Iraq revealed in Abu Ghraib 2006 USAs systematic use of torture - a US practice still silently accepted by Europe. Pakistan in 2011 and 2012 blocked vital US military land-supplies to Afghanistan for long periods. Had it not been for Russian supply-routes, European soldiers in Afghanistan had been dead. In 2001, Pakistan could be armtwisted by former US President Bush, but today Pakistan quite openly supports USAs enemies in Afghanistan. In Afghanistan, even USAs own appointed puppet-leader Karzai in 2011 openly threatened to join Taliban. Egypt in 2011 saw the fall of USA’s puppet Mubarak, who was supported with US/Israeli money, torture-methods and military. Now, the year after (2012), the first fair elections in Egypt handed power to USAs arch-enemy the ‘Moslem Brotherhood’. USA tried to retain power over Egypt by letting Egypt’s US-trained generals steal extraordinary powers. But the new president of Egypt (now former Moslem Brotherhood) fired the USA-supported top-generals, and this way he took Egypt further away from USA. Ecuador (one of the weakest powers in USAs back-yard) in August, 2012 gave asylum to Julian Assange, USAs ‘most wanted enemy’.
Ecuador not only humiliates USA, but also UK and Sweden’s femi-chauvinist laws. That could never have happened in the ‘old days’ when USA played as the world’s ‘indispensable nation’ (words of US secretary of State, Madeleine Albright in 1998).
We see an enormous loss in USAs soft powers. With less cooperation and less respect, USA more has
to depend on its hard used military to achieve its global ambitions – which are still enormous.
USA is financially unsafe
With many years of public deficits up to 10% of the national income (and still no growth in sight) USA depends dangerously on China’s willingness to lend. That is what Henry Kissinger warned about with his careful words (see above) that “China is the world’s biggest lender”.
This is a ‘financial balance of terror’ between USA and China which should worry Europeans deeply.
USA - not a winner
Some people are still hypnotized by the size of USA’s air-force, navy, expansive secret service and
special-forces of 55.000 soldiers. It is a hollow, material surface. As military theorist Boyd pointed out, material overweight only comes in 3rd place after moral strength. The moral strength of USA has
become thin, and USA is not a winner on the ground.
The military failures of USA happen in parallel to failed European wars by Britain, France and
Portugal. After Europe’s ‘happy bombing’ of Libya, this is a needed warning to Europe.
USA miscalculations – a danger
The aggressiveness of US politicians shows, that America has illusions about its grandeur. For
example, illusions about USAs capability to handle any thinkable escalation against Iran, where USA
and President Obama play a high-risk game. Iran has no modern airplanes, ships and tanks, but Iran
is 5x bigger than Iraq and has nearly 2000 km of defendable coastline to the Persian Gulf. USA can
never secure Europe’s oil-deliveries from the Persian Gulf against Iranian speed-boats and coastal
missiles without putting endless soldiers on the ground. If you liked the Iraq-war, you will love Iran
(Gary Sick: Iran-U.S. need a crisis exit ramp, CNN.com 12 Jan. 2012). The many big risks includes a
regional war including nuclear Pakistan, Iranian incursions into Afghanistan, a military revolt in
Saudi Arabia and even with Turkey and Egypt against Israel. Russia may even stop NATO-supplies
to Afghanistan. A kind of World War. Maybe US politicians dream they can use some virtually nonexistent Iranian rebels as ground troops like in Libya. Good luck. This is why experts like Kenneth Waltz warn shooter-happy US politicians to face USAs limitations and let Iran in peace.
USAs politicians demand a build-up of US military activity to ‘balance’ (=press!) China. China learned from history about threats from a foreign navy, and builds capabilities to defend itself. If China sinks a US war-ship in China’s own declared sea-zone, what can USA do? Start a submarine war? Or block all sea traffic to China, thereby damaging US-owned factories in China and vital sub-supplies to USA? – and risking that China retaliates against Japanese oil-traffic from Malacca? China can retaliate by stopping new loans to USA, and send USA deeper into crisis. USA can soon become
impotent in Chinese waters, just like USA was in Russia’s flank, Georgia 2008. These are reasons
why a heavy-weight like Kissinger warns USAs politicians to face reality and cooperate on Taiwan.
United States of denial
If a 99-year has illusions that he has the strength of a 20-year, and starts a Marathon, he will risk a
physical break-down. However, the Marathon break-down the 90-year old will only hurt himself.
When a declining superpower over-estimates it own strength, it is extremely dangerous to others. And the ageing of superpowers happens quicker than ever before.
US politicians compete for harder use of US force, than what is safe. Acknowledged security experts like Waltz, Kissinger and Brzezinski warn about it – but are widely overheard.
Develop USA-independent security-solutions
USAs loss of dominance is taboo among Europe’s politicians and militaries. But the decline of USAs
power is too big to ignore, and risks to Europe are large. Europe (incl. Britain) has little influence.
Georgia in 2008 showed, that USA cannot guarantee the safety of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. Not
even Poland. USAs useless missile-shield in Poland is a provocation to Russia, and reduces Russia’s
willingness to pass life-essential supplies through Russia to Europe’s soldiers in Afghanistan. USA
has made Europe morally complicit in systematic large-scale use of torture. USAs war-play against
Iran creates enormous energy-risks to Europe and China. As Russia’s president Putin once wrote:
USAs pursuit of absolute security for itself creates absolute insecurity for everybody else. USA creates unnecessary enemies around Europe’s neighborhood. After creating enemies around Europe, USA withdraws troops and nuclear capabilities from Europe for a Don-Quixote force-confrontation against China.
Former US-president Nixon wisely turned his authoritarian rival China into a cooperation partner.
Since Nixon’s opening, China lifted 550 mio. people out of poverty, and Russia is today a more attractive cooperation partner than ever since 1917. We must acknowledge that. But today, USA has
unrealistic demands and runs policies of tension against China, Russia, and Muslims. All this in spite
that USA loses superiority, credibility, and morality. The continued US pressure against Rest-Of-
World with less reason to be respected is a dangerous road. Politicians are not allowed to ignore the
red warning lamps from a worsening USA position, just because of the Euro-crisis and public debt.
To reduce debt and secure the Euro are simply necessary part-elements of an independent securitystrategy (including energy) to keep Europe safe and united.
Europe must develop its own comprehensive security-model.
Karsten Riise
Partner & Editor
CHANGE NEWS &
CHANGE MANAGEMENT
